The estimate was released after comprehensive analysis of satellite imagery, field reports on expected yields, sugar recovery rates, drawal percentage, the impact of rainfall from previous and current years, water availability in reservoirs, and anticipated rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon 2024.

In its forecast, the association has pegged the country's gross sugar production (without diversion for ethanol) at 33.310 mn tonnes for 2024-25, from an estimated 33.995 mln tonnes in the current 2023-24 marketing year.

Net sugar production is estimated at 31.965 mln tonnes for the current marketing year, taking into account 2.030 mn tonnes diversion for ethanol making.

Isma has projected an opening stock of 9.05 mln tonnes as on October 1, 2024, while the gross production during 2024-25 (without diversion for ethanol) has been pegged at 33.3 mln tonnes. So, the total availability of sugar would be 42.35 mln tonnes in 2024-25.

The domestic consumption is likely to be 29 mln tonnes in the next marketing year, leading the closing stock to 13.35 mln tonnes as on September 30, 2025.

The normative stock for two and half months has been kept at 5.5 mn tonnes. Therefore, the excess stock over and above normative stock is 7.85 mn tonnes.

"... The excess stock of sugar will be sufficient to support both the unhindered Ethanol Blending Program in 2024-25 season and also exports in the current season leading to a balanced sugar market," ISMA said.