The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attache in New Delhi said in a report.

Output is expected to fall as the area under harvest contracts and the average sugar recovery rate declines, and as ethanol becomes an increasingly attractive option for cane mills.

Uttar Pradesh is expected to again be the top-producing state, with anticipated production gains there in 2019/2020 partially offsetting lower output from Maharashtra and Karnataka.

Exports are expected to total 3,5 million tonnes in 2019/2020, one million of which will be re-exports under the Advance Authorization Scheme (AAS) and the remaining 2,5 million of which will be commercial sales, according to the report. Total exports for 2018/2019 were estimated at 3,4 million tonnes.

Record production in India in 2018/2019 and an underwhelming crop in traditional top-producer Brazil helped propel the Asian country to the position of top producer that year, according to USDA estimates. The trend is expected to reverse in 2019/2020, with Brazilian output again expected to outstrip India’s.