The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 3.9 million tonnes in the new season starting in October, as good production in Asia and Brazil will offset problems in Europe and China, broker and analyst StoneX said on Monday.
It is reported by Nasdaq.
In its new global crop report, the broker increased its view for the surplus from 3.3 million tonnes seen in July.
It projected that India will have another near-record crop in 2022/23 (Oct-Sept) at 36.5 million tonnes, 500,000 tonnes more than in 2021/22, as the weather has been positive for development of cane fields.
The weather helped another large producer in Asia, Thailand. StoneX sees Thai sugar output at 11.5 million tonnes in 2022/23, 14% more than in the previous season.
The analyst cut its estimate for the Europe plus United Kingdom region by 400,000 tonnes to 16 million tonnes as well as for China by 300,000 tonnes to 10 million tonnes, both because of dryness in production areas.
It expects Brazil to continue its recovery after the 2021 drought, seeing a potential production of 37.2 million tonnes in the country in the October to September global cycle (2022/23).
StoneX released its first projection for the Brazilian 2023/24 (April-March) center-south crop forecasting sugar output of 35.2 million tonnes, 5.6% more than the current season.