It is reported by valorinternational.globo.

Forecasts remain mixed, reflecting the uneven conditions of plantations in the region. Some analysts predict an increase in sugarcane crushing in the upcoming season, while producers and traders expect another significant decline in output.

At an event in Ribeirão Preto on Wednesday, consultancy firm Datagro projected sugarcane production at 612 million tonnes—1.4% lower than the current season. However, opinions vary widely.

On the optimistic side, consultancy firm Hedgepoint forecasts a harvest of 630 million tonnes, citing accumulated rainfall levels in recent months. «This year, rainfall is close to average, and soil moisture is better», — said Carlos Mello, head of sugar at Hedgepoint Global Markets. However, he noted that output could be lower if March to May turns out drier than expected.

Trading firm Sucden, on the other hand, has a more pessimistic outlook. «A number between 590 million and 600 million tonnes would be a good estimate for the Center-South», — said Ulysses Carvalho, senior trader at Sucden.

Producers are even more concerned. «Today, based on discussions with industry associations, we expect a minimum decline of 15%», — said José Guilherme Nogueira, president of the Organization of Sugarcane Producers’ Associations of Brazil (Orplana), in an interview with Valor.

The main challenges for plantations are poor sprouting and slow growth. «Whether in areas affected by fires (in 2024) or not, the cane is simply not growing», — Mr. Nogueira said.

Azael Pizzolato Júnior, owner of Ipê Agrícola, which supplies sugarcane to mills in Araraquara and Pitangueiras, in the state of São Paulo, reported that even in fields untouched by fires, some ratoon crops failed to regenerate, forcing him to replant. The current drought is also affecting peanut plantations, which he grows in rotation with sugarcane.

One of the hardest-hit regions is Jaú, São Paulo, where rainfall has been scarce for the past month. Eduardo Romão, president of the Jaú Sugarcane Growers Association, said that in mid-January, when farmers typically assess their fields to determine the application of pre-maturation agents, sugarcane plants that should have reached 70 centimeters were only half that height. «Producers opted against applying the agent because they wanted the cane to grow more», — he explained.

Mr. Romão expects a 25% drop in productivity in Jaú, adding that other regions, such as Araçatuba and São Carlos, could see even worse results. In Ribeirão Preto, where it has not rained significantly in over 30 days, farmers also anticipate lower yields, though not as severe. Meanwhile, Piracicaba has been less affected, as has Pirassununga, home to Baldin Bioenergia. «We faced minimal issues last year, even with the wildfires. It’s still early to tell, but some decline is inevitable», — said Carlos Roberto Ravanelli Ferreira, administrative manager at Baldin Bioenergia.

According to Datagro’s mapping, Ribeirão Preto and Araçatuba are among the worst-affected regions. In February alone, rainfall in Ribeirão Preto’s microregion was 26.5% below average, while Bauru recorded a 43.1% shortfall. Conditions were even more critical in southern Minas Gerais and Goiás, where precipitation was more than 70% below the historical average for the month.

Soil water storage levels remain high, exceeding 70% in much of São Paulo, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, and Minas Gerais. However, a year ago, the share of land with over 80% water retention was even greater.

Datagro’s assessment indicates that productivity in the first third of the harvest will decline due to poor sprouting, shorter cane internodes, and reduced growth. The second third of the season, for now, is expected to see stable yields. «Everything will depend on April’s rainfall», — said Plínio Nastari, president of Datagro.