CS Brazil sugar production expected to drop 63% — S&P Global Platts



Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 457,600 mt in the first half of November, down 63.2% on the year, a survey of 10 analysts by S&P Global Platts showed Nov. 22.

It is reported by S&P Global Platts.

According to the analysts surveyed, the cane crush is estimated to range from 5.2 million mt to 13.6 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 9.4 million mt, a 53.7% decrease on the year.

Weather in the Center-South was suboptimal for crushing during H1 November, with an estimated four days lost to rain.

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 35%, down from 41.9% a year earlier. Although Brazilian producers were taking advantage of the recent production premium for ethanol production, long-term expectations are for mills to continue to maximize their sugar production, given the increased profitability of sugar production over ethanol production.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugarcane, or ATR, is expected to be 139.5 kg/mt, a decrease of 8.9% year on year.

Total ethanol output from sugarcane is expected to be 599.2 million liters, a decrease of 49% year on year.

Hydrous ethanol output from cane was expected to be 288 million liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 57.3% year on year. Anhydrous ethanol output from cane in H1 November was expected to be 291 million liters, a decrease of 41.9% year on year, according to the survey.