It is reported by S&P Global Platts.

«The start of the 2022-23 harvest should witness the lowest cane crush since the 2014-15 harvest, — according to S&P Global's Platts Analytics. — The below average cane crush in 2014-15 and current 2022-23 harvests were both caused by below average rainfall during the crop year».

Of the 10 analysts surveyed, two large trading houses estimated the total cane crush would be between 7.5 million mt and 8.0 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 9.47 million mt, a 39.6% drop year on year.

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 28.3%, down from 38.7% a year earlier. Brazilian producers were expected to take advantage of the recent high price of ethanol during the early stages of the harvest, but long-term expectations are for mills to maximize their sugar production during the second half of the harvest.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugar cane, or ATR, is expected to be 108.76 kg/mt, a decrease of 0.8% year on year.

«At the beginning of the harvest Center-South mills will be focusing on ethanol production, which is currently paying a premium over sugar», — said Platts Analytics.

Total ethanol output from sugar cane and corn is expected to be 539.4 million liters, a decrease of 27% year on year.

Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 454 million liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 27.8% year on year. Anhydrous ethanol output in H1 April was expected to be 76 million liters, a decrease of 29.9% year on year, according to the survey.