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Mexico closed the 2025-26 sugarcane harvest with 5.3Mt of sugar, an 11.6% increase from the previous cycle, as higher production adds pressure on inventories, domestic prices, and export requirements. The increase resulted from the milling of 49.6Mt of sugarcane, up 8.4% year over year.
The higher output is challenging the market’s ability to absorb supply. The Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) estimates that Mexico consumed about 3.8Mt of sugar during the 2025-26 cycle and imported 42,000t. To prevent inventories from rising further, the country exported 1.3Mt, but still ended the cycle with about 1.3Mt in unsold inventories.
The production increase is affecting sugarcane producers as higher inventories contribute to lower prices. The National Confederation of Rural Owners (CNPR) said the sector faces a difficult outlook because more sugar will have to be sold on international markets, where prices are below those available in the preferential US market.
During the 2025-26 cycle, 188,000t of Mexican sugar were exported to the United States, while 350,000t were shipped under the IMMEX program. Another 800,000t went to other destinations. Domestic prices have also declined. The price paid per tonne of sugar at the close of the 2024-25 cycle was MX$16,100 pesos (US$949.1), 25% below the previous year. For the 2025-26 cycle, the starting price was set at MX$14,00/t, representing a further decline of at least 15%.
The United States offers a more attractive outlet because domestic production does not cover consumption. For the 2026-27 cycle, US production is projected at 8.1Mt, compared with demand of 11.4Mt, leaving an import requirement of about 3.25 million tonnes.
Mexico has an initial authorization to export 576,000t to the United States during the cycle, with 346,000t already released. The price differential makes this market particularly important: in August, the average US price was US$805/t, compared with US$355/t internationally.
GCMA projects Mexican production of 5.3Mt in the next cycle and exports of 1.5Mt, including up to 900,000t to the United States. Even with higher exports, inventories could remain at about 1.37Mt.
More details: https://mexicobusiness.news/agribusiness/news/mexicos-sugar-output-rises-116-amid-surplus