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In the 2026/2027 MY, sugarcane output is expected to increase in Brazil’s Center-South region.
Expectations of a robust sugarcane crop in Brazil’s Center-South region in the 2026/27 season, with projected production of around 635 million tonnes of cane and sugar output exceeding 40 million tonnes, are set to reinforce global oversupply and maintain structural pressure on sugar prices, while ethanol regains competitiveness and plays a central role in market rebalancing, as per the press release issued by Hedgepoint Global Markets.
Ethanol has regained competitiveness relative to sugar since late 2025, encouraging adjustments in mills’ production mix. Currently, the sugar mix is projected at around 48%, although the level required to fully balance supply and demand is closer to 44.5%, reinforcing ethanol’s role as the primary lever for market rebalancing.