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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the country may receive less than normal rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season.
Rainfall is expected to be around 80 cm, compared to the long-term average of 87 cm based on data from 1971–2020.
For the first time in eight years, IMD has predicted below-normal monsoon rainfall. Most parts of the country are likely to receive less rain than usual.
The total rainfall this year is likely to be about 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the lowest since 2018, when it was 91% of normal.
Weather experts say an El Niño condition may develop around June, which usually weakens the monsoon in India. This can lead to reduced rainfall and breaks during the season.
Since 1951, El Niño has occurred 16 times. Of these, India saw below-normal rainfall 10 times, while in 6 cases the pattern was different.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to turn positive towards the end of the season in September. This usually increases rainfall and may partly balance the impact of El Niño.
Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, about 8 days earlier than usual. It normally moves from Kerala to Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh by mid-June, reaches Mumbai by June 11, and covers the whole country by July 8.
The withdrawal of the monsoon starts from northwest India around September 17 and ends by October 15. This year, due to El Niño, the monsoon may arrive late, although some relief could come towards the end of the season.
According to IMD data, in the last 150 years, the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala has varied. The earliest arrival in Kerala was in 1918, on May 11th, while the latest arrival was in 1972, on June 18th.
More details: https://www.bhaskarenglish.in/national/news/india-monsoon-rain-2026-below-normal-el-nino-delay-137688446.html