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India is likely to see below-average monsoon rainfall in July after logging its fifth-driest June since records began in 1901, the weather department said on Tuesday, raising concerns over farm output and economic growth.
The monsoon delivers about 70% of annual rains to replenish crucial water sources in the nearly $4-trillion economy, where almost half of farmland lacks irrigation and about half the population earns its livelihood from farming.
July monsoon rainfall is forecast to be below 94% of the long-period average, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
July rainfall is crucial because it accounts for the bulk of the four-month monsoon season’s precipitation, and most farmers sow summer crops during the month.
The IMD had forecast June monsoon rainfall at less than 92% of the long-period average (LPA), but rainfall was 39.8% below average, making it the fifth-driest June since records began in 1901.
The El Nino weather pattern, which contributed to below-average rainfall in June, is expected to strengthen in the coming months and could weigh on monsoon rains, Mohapatra said.